I Was Pleased a Moment Ago: How Pleasure Varies With Background and Foreground Reference Points

The pleasure of an outcome is often evaluated relative to salient reference points. In the background, increasing sequences of positive outcomes are more enjoy- able than decreasing sequences. In the foreground, outcomes that could have been worse are often more enjoyable than those that could have been better. How does pleasure vary when both background and foreground reference points are salient? Using a repeated gambling task in which participants make a choice, learn the outcome, watch their cumulative earnings change, and rate the pleasure of the out- come, we explore this question. Pleasure depends on background and foreground reference points, but the immediate events tend to dominate. The relatively narrow focus on the most recent reference points leads to myopic pleasure. We offer a modified version of decision affect theory to account for the results and explore the implications for consumer satisfaction

Pleasurable Surprises: A Cross-Cultural Study of Consumer Responses to Unexpected Incentives

Consumer reactions to a surprising event are generally stronger than those to an identical but unexpected event. But the experience of surprise differs across cultures. In this article, we examine differences between East Asian and Western emotional reactions to unexpected incentives. When given an unexpected gift, East Asians report less surprise and less pleasure than Westerners. East Asians’ dampened pleasure is explained by their motivation to maintain balance and emotional control, which leads to a reappraisal of perceived likelihood. However, if the unexpected gift is attributed to good luck, which is a desirable form of the unexpected, East Asians experience even greater pleasure than Westerners

Trade-Offs in Fairness and Preference Judgments

At the heart of many debates about distributive justice is the widely assumed trade-off between equality and efficiency (Okun, 1975). In the present chapter, equality refers to the distribution of income within a society. Equality increases whenever income variability is reduced. Efficiency refers to the goods and services that result from a given input – production, physical capital, or human labor. Efficiency increases whenever society produces more from the same input. Trade-offs between equality and efficiency occur because increases in one often lead to decreases in the other. An egalitarian society satisfies basic needs by establishing programs that redistribute wealth. But those programs can reduce efficiency when they introduce bureaucratic waste or diminish financial incentives. A reduction in efficiency can lead to fewer investments, fewer jobs, and declining productivity

Utility Measurement: Configural-Weight Theory and the Judge\u27s Point of View

Subjects judged the values of lotteries from 3 points of view: the highest price that a buyer should pay, the lowest price that a seller should accept, and the “fair” price. The rank order of judgments changed as a function of point of view. Data also showed violations of branch independence and monotonicity (dominance). These findings pose difficulties for nonconfigural theories of decision making, such as subjective expected utility theory, but can be described by configural-weight theory. Configural weighting is similar to rank-dependent utility theory, except that the weight of the lowest outcome in a gamble depends on the viewpoint, and 0-valued outcomes receive differential weighting. Configural-weight theory predicted the effect of viewpoint, the violations of branch independence, and the violations of monotonicity, using a single scale of utility that is independent of the lottery and the point of view

Item Response Models of Probability Judgments: Application to a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament

In this article, we develop and study methods for evaluating forecasters and forecasting questions in dynamic environments. These methods, based on item response models, are useful in situations where items vary in difficulty, and we wish to evaluate forecasters based on the difficulty of the items that they forecasted correctly. In addition, the methods are useful in situations where we need to compare forecasters who make predictions at different points in time or for different items. We first extend traditional models to handle subjective probabilities, and we then apply a specific model to geopolitical forecasts. We evaluate the model’s ability to accommodate the data, compare the model’s estimates of forecaster ability to estimates of forecaster ability based on scoring rules, and externally validate the model’s item estimates. We also highlight some shortcomings of the traditional models and discuss some further extensions. The analyses illustrate the models’ potential for widespread use in forecasting and subjective probability evaluation

Strong Claims and Weak Evidence: Reassessing the Predictive Validity of the IAT

The authors reanalyzed data from 2 influential studies — A. R. McConnell and J. M. Leibold (2001) and J. C. Ziegert and P. J. Hanges (2005) — that explore links between implicit bias and discriminatory behavior and that have been invoked to support strong claims about the predictive validity of the Implicit Association Test. In both of these studies, the inclusion of race Implicit Association Test scores in regression models reduced prediction errors by only tiny amounts, and Implicit Association Test scores did not permit prediction of individual-level behaviors. Furthermore, the results were not robust when the impact of rater reliability, statistical specifications, and/or outliers were taken into account, and reanalysis of A. R. McConnell & J. M. Leibold (2001) revealed a pattern of behavior consistent with a pro-Black behavioral bias, rather than the anti-Black bias suggested in the original study

The role of actively open-minded thinking in information acquisition, accuracy, and calibration

Errors in estimating and forecasting often result from the failure to collect and consider enough relevant information. We examine whether attributes associated with persistence in information acquisition can predict performance in an estimation task. We focus on actively open-minded thinking (AOT), need for cognition, grit, and the tendency to maximize or satisfice when making decisions. In three studies, participants made estimates and predictions of uncertain quantities, with varying levels of control over the amount of information they could collect before estimating. Only AOT predicted performance. This relationship was mediated by information acquisition: AOT predicted the tendency to collect information, and information acquisition predicted performance. To the extent that available information is predictive of future outcomes, actively open-minded thinkers are more likely than others to make accurate forecasts